Market Shifts Offer Investment Opportunities
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- October 26, 2024
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In the era of high-quality development, the landscape of capital markets has undergone significant changesThis necessitates a shift in investment paradigmsThe new measures known as the "Nine National Policies" highlight the importance of focusing on long-term value investment and returnsIn light of these changes, I would like to share some insights on how investors can navigate this evolving environment.
One prominent strategy in this context is to adopt a balanced investment style that can effectively address market uncertaintiesOver the past decade, growth was the central theme, primarily because the Chinese economy was experiencing rapid expansion across various industriesHowever, as growth rates begin to decelerate, the scarcity of high-speed growth is likely to become more pronouncedSimultaneously, investors are increasingly prioritizing certainty in their investments
This shift is expected to lead to a greater emphasis on intrinsic "value," gradually returning to the aesthetic standard of "larger is better," wherein leading companies with competitive advantages become prime investment targets.
Within this shifting market landscape, a balanced investment approach can be likened to a dumbbell: one end consists of defensive assets that offer stable and sustainable cash flows, a strong willingness to distribute dividends, and solid net assets, while the other end includes dynamic growth companies that stand to benefit from global industrial trends, perhaps due to the AI boom or the burgeoning development of emerging marketsThese firms may yield substantial returns within a certain timeframeHowever, caution is warranted; many companies currently branded as "tech" display questionable growth prospectsInvestors are rightly concerned that they may fall into traps where valuations are high, but growth is sluggish
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Identifying and avoiding "pseudo-tech" companies is crucial in practical investment scenarios.
The overall equity market has seen significant corrections, and within this adjustment, many companies have been unfairly penalizedSome have been negatively affected due to weak sector performance, while others have experienced temporary fluctuations in earningsThis environment underscores the necessity for strong stock-picking abilities, enabling discerning investors to strategically position themselves in high-value opportunities that can achieve genuine long-term growth.
The new policies introduced in the "Nine National Policies" have profound implications for the capital marketAs a pivotal reform initiative in China’s capital markets, it seeks to enhance market vitality and promote sustained, healthy developmentNoteworthy among these initiatives is a reinforcement of market oversight and a clear directive towards fostering long-term investment.
In the past, speculation around shell values and the pursuit of short-term themes has been rampant in the capital markets
This phenomenon was primarily due to a lack of a robust delisting mechanism within the A-shares market, permitting a significant number of companies devoid of investment value to accrue market capitalizations that were misaligned with their true worthSome small-cap stocks were even able to surpass daily trading volumes of companies with market caps in the hundred-billion rangeHowever, with the advancing implementation of the new policies, tolerance for subpar companies is expected to diminish significantly, effectively curtailing speculative tradingWhile certain fluctuations may still occur, the long-term outlook suggests a fundamental shift away from the past practices of chasing rumors for quick gainsValue investing is poised to witness a resurgence, heralding a new era of growth.
Investing in quality companies with a patient capital mentality offers hope for long-term returns
Small, consistent efforts can yield long-term success, making the pursuit of stable growth well worth the endeavor.
We now find ourselves in a "season of turmoil" globallyThe post-pandemic era has been marked by escalating political and economic instability, with intensified strategic competition among major powers and an increasingly constricted living space for smaller nationsEconomic fluctuations, resource scarcities, and territorial disputes serve as potential triggers for conflictThe deepening of globalization means that unrest in any region can quickly proliferate, emerging as a destabilizing factor worldwide.
In this challenging atmosphere, investors' demand for certainty will inevitably rise, with a marked emphasis on volatility control and risk managementVolatility inherently represents energy loss; in the context of the previous growth-based valuations, expectations for over 100% growth would typically accommodate 20-30% volatility or retracement without major concern
However, when growth projections falter, expectations sway towards a more modest growth target of 10-20%, where low volatility becomes vitalHigh fluctuations can severely erode investment returnsOver the long haul, the aim should be to secure stable compounded growth rather than to chase after volatile gains, which ultimately benefits both the investors' net worth and their overall experience.
On another note, amid the current global landscape, embracing tangible and valuable resource commodities represents a form of security in investmentsTaking oil as an example, its pricing benefits from global dollar depreciation, while domestic listed companies in China, with their unique engineering advantages, can efficiently enhance productivity and minimize costs, thereby generating excellent cash flowsAs Charlie Munger aptly noted, “The most worthwhile companies are those that generate substantial cash when they cease to grow.” Holding onto high-quality firms like these may very well ensure long-term, stable returns for investors.
In an era defined by high-quality growth, market dynamics, investor compositions, and global contexts have all evolved considerably
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